The latest forecast from the UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) suggests a global economic growth rate of 2.6% for 2024, just above the 2.5% threshold often associated with a recession. This marks the third consecutive year of growth below the pre-pandemic average of 3.2% from 2015 to 2019.
However, the report warns that the intense focus on inflation is overshadowing critical issues such as trade disruptions, climate change, and widening inequalities. To address these challenges, UNCTAD calls for structural reforms and coordinated global efforts. Their proposed comprehensive strategy includes both supply-side policies to enhance investment and demand-side measures to improve employment and income.
The uneven post-pandemic recovery is evident across different regions:
- Africa: Projected to grow at 3% in 2024, slightly up from 2.9% in 2023, but facing significant challenges from armed conflicts and climate impacts. Key economies like Nigeria, Egypt, and South Africa are underperforming, affecting overall prospects.
- South America: Economic growth is decelerating, with Brazil expected to grow at 2.1%, hindered by external pressures and dependence on commodities. Argentina faces a 3.7% contraction due to inflation and complex debt negotiations.
- North America: Growth remains relatively robust, though challenges persist. The United States is expected to grow at 2%, with concerns over high household debt levels.
- Asia: China targets approximately 5% growth in 2024, leveraging strong manufacturing and trade. India’s economy is bolstered by robust public investment and service sector growth, with a forecasted expansion of 6.5% in 2024. Japan is expected to grow at 1.0% amid challenges in export demand.
- Europe: Major economies experience economic slowdowns, with France, Germany, and Italy projecting growth rates of 1.3%, 0.9%, and 0.8%, respectively, due to industrial and fiscal challenges.
- Oceania: Economic growth in the region, particularly in Australia (projected at 1.4% growth in 2024), is expected to remain subdued, extending into 2024.
These projections underscore the need for concerted efforts to address both immediate economic concerns and broader systemic issues to foster sustainable growth and development worldwide.