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Sri Lanka’s central bank expects economy to grow by 4.5% in 2025

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Sri Lanka’s economy will grow by 4.5% this year, the central bank said in a monetary policy report on Friday, despite some risks to the island nation’s recovery from U.S. tariffs.

The central bank’s projection is above World Bank estimates of 3.5% growth for this year.

Underpinned by a $2.9 billion International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme, Sri Lanka’s gross domestic product grew by 5% in 2024, rebounding strongly from a severe financial crisis three years ago.

The central bank’s report did highlight some risks to the outlook.

“However, external demand conditions and evolving global economic landscape increase the level of uncertainty associated with growth prospects over the near to medium term,” it said.

Sri Lanka is continuing talks with the U.S. after it imposed 20% tariffs last month, reducing it from 44% in April.

Apparel, Sri Lanka’s second-largest foreign exchange earner, is particularly exposed — the sector exports 40% of its output to the U.S. and brought in $4.8 billion last year. It employs around 300,000 people, most of them women.

Inflation will continue to accelerate and reach the central bank’s target of 5% in mid 2026, the report added.

Sri Lanka’s consumer price index fell 0.3% in July, having tumbled from an inflation peak of 70% in September 2022, mainly due to a reduction of power tariffs and food prices.

The Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) held its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 7.75% last month after trimming it by 25 basis points in May.

Source – Adaderana

Economy

Vehicle imports generate Rs. 512.5 billion in tax revenue

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Sri Lanka imported 316,000 vehicles during the first six months of 2026, generating Rs. 512.547 billion in tax revenue, according to officials from Sri Lanka Customs.

The figures were revealed during a review of the operations and revenue performance of Sri Lanka Customs by the Parliamentary Committee on Ways and Means.

Of the total tax revenue generated through vehicle imports, motor vehicles imports accounted for the largest share, contributing Rs. 386.726 billion.

Petrol-powered cars with engine capacities below 1,000cc emerged as the highest revenue-generating category, contributing Rs. 137.4 billion in Customs revenue. This represented 9.96% of total Customs revenue.

Meanwhile, Sri Lanka Customs recorded total revenue of Rs. 1.379 trillion by June 30, 2026, against an expected revenue of Rs. 1.061 trillion for the period, representing 130% of the targeted revenue.

Officials informed the committee that customs revenue had exceeded monthly targets throughout the year and had recorded higher revenue compared with the corresponding months of 2025.

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Economy

Rs. 5.8bn World Bank-backed project to rehabilitate 296 irrigation tanks

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Sri Lanka has begun rehabilitating 296 minor irrigation tanks under a World Bank-funded programme aimed at strengthening irrigation infrastructure and improving climate resilience.

More than Rs. 5.8 billion has been allocated for the work under the Integrated Rurban Development and Climate Resilience Project (IRDCRP), which is planned to continue until 2029.

Of the 296 tanks, 290 are located across 18 districts and were damaged by Cyclone Ditwah. About Rs. 5.58 billion has been allocated for their rehabilitation under the project’s Contingent Emergency Response Component.

The largest number of affected tanks is in Badulla, where 97 are being rehabilitated, followed by Ratnapura with 29, Mannar with 24 and Kurunegala with 19. Fifteen tanks each are being rehabilitated in Kandy and Vavuniya.

A further six minor irrigation tanks in Polonnaruwa, Hambantota and Jaffna are also being rehabilitated at a cost of about Rs. 256.2 million.

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Economy

Sri Lanka exports to India grow 7.2% to USD 669mn in first seven months

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Sri Lanka’s merchandise exports to India increased by 7.22% year-on-year during the first seven months of 2026, reaching US$669.36 million, according to data from the Export Development Board (EDB).

Exports to India during the January-July period rose from US$624.31 million recorded during the corresponding period of 2025.

In July alone, exports to India increased by 9.12% year-on-year to US$129.51 million, compared with US$118.69 million in July 2025.

The EDB said the cumulative growth in exports to India was mainly supported by increased shipments of boilers, piston engines, pumps and vacuum pumps, petroleum oils, animal feed and base metal products.

The growth also came amid a broader expansion in Sri Lanka’s exports to the South Asian region.

Exports to South Asian markets increased by 11.98% year-on-year to US$916.55 million during the January-July 2026 period.

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