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Global economic growth set to slow to 2.6% in 2024: UNCTAD

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The latest forecast from the UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) suggests a global economic growth rate of 2.6% for 2024, just above the 2.5% threshold often associated with a recession. This marks the third consecutive year of growth below the pre-pandemic average of 3.2% from 2015 to 2019.

However, the report warns that the intense focus on inflation is overshadowing critical issues such as trade disruptions, climate change, and widening inequalities. To address these challenges, UNCTAD calls for structural reforms and coordinated global efforts. Their proposed comprehensive strategy includes both supply-side policies to enhance investment and demand-side measures to improve employment and income.

The uneven post-pandemic recovery is evident across different regions:

  • Africa: Projected to grow at 3% in 2024, slightly up from 2.9% in 2023, but facing significant challenges from armed conflicts and climate impacts. Key economies like Nigeria, Egypt, and South Africa are underperforming, affecting overall prospects.
  • South America: Economic growth is decelerating, with Brazil expected to grow at 2.1%, hindered by external pressures and dependence on commodities. Argentina faces a 3.7% contraction due to inflation and complex debt negotiations.
  • North America: Growth remains relatively robust, though challenges persist. The United States is expected to grow at 2%, with concerns over high household debt levels.
  • Asia: China targets approximately 5% growth in 2024, leveraging strong manufacturing and trade. India’s economy is bolstered by robust public investment and service sector growth, with a forecasted expansion of 6.5% in 2024. Japan is expected to grow at 1.0% amid challenges in export demand.
  • Europe: Major economies experience economic slowdowns, with France, Germany, and Italy projecting growth rates of 1.3%, 0.9%, and 0.8%, respectively, due to industrial and fiscal challenges.
  • Oceania: Economic growth in the region, particularly in Australia (projected at 1.4% growth in 2024), is expected to remain subdued, extending into 2024.

These projections underscore the need for concerted efforts to address both immediate economic concerns and broader systemic issues to foster sustainable growth and development worldwide.

Economy

Sri Lanka prints Rs100bn through open market operations

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Sri Lanka’s central bank has injected around 100 billion rupees against domestic assets through multiple liquidity tools by October 25 official data show, driving up excess money in the banking system to over 190 billion rupees.

The central bank injected 36.16 billion rupees through an overnight auction and 70 billion rupees for 7 days through a term auction of printed money.

By October 25, excess liquidity deposited in the central bank’s standing facility was 193.4 billion rupees, up from 138 billion rupees a month earlier.

Economynext – https://economynext.com/sri-lanka-prints-rs100bn-through-open-market-operations-184982/

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Economy

Sri Lanka’s Economy Stabilized – World Bank

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Sri Lanka’s economy has stabilized, with growth expected to reach 4.4 percent in 2024, surpassing earlier forecasts. This positive outlook follows four consecutive quarters of growth driven by the industrial and tourism sectors and supported by critical structural and policy reforms, says the World Bank.

Released today, the World Bank’s bi-annual Sri Lanka Development Update, titled Opening Up to the Future, cautions that the recovery remains fragile and hinges on maintaining macroeconomic stability, successfully restructuring debt, and continuing structural reforms to increase medium-term growth and reduce poverty. Key reforms aimed at boosting exports, attracting foreign investment, enhancing female labor force participation, improving productivity, and addressing challenges such as poverty, food insecurity, and vulnerabilities in the financial sector are crucial for achieving more inclusive and sustainable growth.

The report underscores the country’s potential for achieving higher and sustainable growth through trade. Sri Lanka has an untapped export potential estimated at $10 billion annually, which could create approximately 142,500 new jobs. There is significant opportunity for diversifying and expanding exports in manufacturing, services and agriculture, provided the necessary reforms are implemented.

“Sri Lanka’s recent economic stabilization, marked by four quarters of growth and a current account surplus in 2023, is a significant milestone,” said David Sislen, World Bank Regional Country Director for Maldives, Nepal, and Sri Lanka.  “At this moment, Sri Lanka has a real opportunity to realize its export potential, which we estimate at $10 billion annually. There is an opening for Sri Lanka to deepen its participation in global value chains and take advantage of its geography and an evolving global landscape to generate jobs and sustain growth. The continued implementation of important economic and governance-related reforms will allow Sri Lanka to fully benefit from this moment.”

Looking ahead, the report projects a modest growth of 3.5 percent in 2025. Growth is then expected to follow a modest path over the medium term due to the scarring effects of the economic crisis. Poverty is expected to gradually decline but remain above 20 percent until 2026. Inflation is likely to stay below the central bank’s target of 5 percent in 2024, gradually increasing as demand picks up. The current account is projected to remain in surplus in 2024, driven by tourism and remittances.

The Sri Lanka Development Update is a companion piece to the South Asia Development Update, a twice-a-year World Bank report that examines economic developments and prospects in the South Asia region and analyzes policy challenges faced by countries in this region. The October 2024 edition, Women, Jobs, and Growthprojects growth of 6.4 percent in South Asia this year, making it the fastest-growing EMDE region in the world. Increasing women’s participation in the labor force and opening further to global trade and investment could help the region grow even faster and achieve its development goals, says the World Bank’s regional outlook.

Source – World Bank

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Economy

President appoints two senior economic advisors on honorary basis

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President Anura Kumara Dissanayake has appointed the Chairman of the Ceylon Chamber of Commerce, Duminda Hulangamuwa and Prof. Anil Fernando of the Sri Jayawardenapura University as Senior Advisors for Economic Affairs and Finance on honorary basis.

Cabinet Spokesman Minister Vijitha Herath said the appointments, effective September 24, 2024, come with the consensus of the Cabinet of Ministers.

He said both appointments were honorary without a salary payment or other benefits.

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