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Global economic growth set to slow to 2.6% in 2024: UNCTAD

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The latest forecast from the UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) suggests a global economic growth rate of 2.6% for 2024, just above the 2.5% threshold often associated with a recession. This marks the third consecutive year of growth below the pre-pandemic average of 3.2% from 2015 to 2019.

However, the report warns that the intense focus on inflation is overshadowing critical issues such as trade disruptions, climate change, and widening inequalities. To address these challenges, UNCTAD calls for structural reforms and coordinated global efforts. Their proposed comprehensive strategy includes both supply-side policies to enhance investment and demand-side measures to improve employment and income.

The uneven post-pandemic recovery is evident across different regions:

  • Africa: Projected to grow at 3% in 2024, slightly up from 2.9% in 2023, but facing significant challenges from armed conflicts and climate impacts. Key economies like Nigeria, Egypt, and South Africa are underperforming, affecting overall prospects.
  • South America: Economic growth is decelerating, with Brazil expected to grow at 2.1%, hindered by external pressures and dependence on commodities. Argentina faces a 3.7% contraction due to inflation and complex debt negotiations.
  • North America: Growth remains relatively robust, though challenges persist. The United States is expected to grow at 2%, with concerns over high household debt levels.
  • Asia: China targets approximately 5% growth in 2024, leveraging strong manufacturing and trade. India’s economy is bolstered by robust public investment and service sector growth, with a forecasted expansion of 6.5% in 2024. Japan is expected to grow at 1.0% amid challenges in export demand.
  • Europe: Major economies experience economic slowdowns, with France, Germany, and Italy projecting growth rates of 1.3%, 0.9%, and 0.8%, respectively, due to industrial and fiscal challenges.
  • Oceania: Economic growth in the region, particularly in Australia (projected at 1.4% growth in 2024), is expected to remain subdued, extending into 2024.

These projections underscore the need for concerted efforts to address both immediate economic concerns and broader systemic issues to foster sustainable growth and development worldwide.

Economy

Sri Lanka in “much better position” to handle oil price shocks – CBSL Governor

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The Governor of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka, Dr. Nandalal Weerasinghe has assured the public that Sri Lanka is now in a “much better position” to withstand global economic shocks, including rising oil prices and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

Speaking in an interview with Bloomberg recently, the Governor highlighted that the nation has built significant financial buffers, including foreign reserves that have surged from near-zero levels to over $7 billion. 

This provides a critical safety net against the rising oil prices and supply chain disruptions currently triggered by Middle East tensions.

The Governor emphasized that the domestic inflation environment has transformed, dropping from a crisis peak of 70% to a current rate of 1.6%. 

This low inflation gives the Central Bank “significant space” to absorb external price shocks without destabilizing the local economy. 

Unlike the previous crisis, where fuel shortages were caused by a total lack of foreign exchange, Dr. Weerasinghe clarified that any current risks are related to global supply logistics rather than a lack of domestic funding. 

He noted that the exchange rate will be allowed to act as a shock absorber to manage demand and protect the country’s fiscal health.

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Economy

Sri Lanka’s foreign reserves surpass USD 7 billion mark

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Sri Lanka’s official reserve assets increased by 6.6% to USD 7,284 million in February 2026, compared to USD 6,832 million recorded in January 2026.

Accordingly, country’s reserves have surpassed the USD 7 billion threshold for the first time since August 2020. 

However, this includes the proceeds received under the swap arrangement with the People’s Bank of China, according to the Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL).

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Over 80% state university graduates are migrating

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Sri Lanka is undergoing a brain drain crisis where a new study from the University of Peradeniya reveals that over 50 per cent of state university graduates, rising to 80-90 per cent in critical fields like medicine, engineering, and agriculture, are migrating permanently, never to return, according to a recent article by Ceylon Public Affairs.

The article which explores brain drain levels in 2025 mentions that the Sri Lankan government spends Rs. 87 billion yearly on university education in which many believe this has turned free education into a “development aid programme” for richer countries, with the best and brightest doctors, engineers, and scientists contributing to the economies of the West while Sri Lanka grapples with a 24.5 per cent poverty rate.

“Yearly, 42,000 undergraduates are educated across disciplines such as arts (25 per cent), management (20 per cent), engineering (13 per cent), and medicine (10 per cent). However, this system is inadvertently fuelling a migration of skilled workers. According to the University of Peradeniya study, the brightest graduates—those with science-based degrees—are leaving in droves, with migration rates exceeding 80 per cent in some departments.” Ceylon Public Affairs says.

Ceylon Public Affairs says that the reason for such high levels of brain drain is due to both economic and social realities. Low wages and high unemployment worsened by the country’s recent economic crisis, including a sovereign default and the lingering effects of the COVID-19 pandemic that pushes graduates to seek opportunities abroad. Meanwhile, the private and public sectors in Sri Lanka struggle to offer salaries competitive with global markets, trapping the nation in what economists call the middle-income trap.

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